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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-11T21:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10195/-1
CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T03:42Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 83.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.2 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -45.12 hour(s)
Difference: 1.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2016-02-17T02:22Z

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